On the other hand, we have reached the plateau of the peak oil since 2007 (production stopped to increase and prices skyrocketed). THIS is the challenge we will have to face in the two next decades. Electrical vehicles will be needed. Not just personal cars, but also trucks, construction vehicles (my bet is that most will be wired), agricultural vehicles, possibly planes. That will take a lot more than the mere 25% we could save for a budget that would exceed the construction of 25% supplemental production capabilities.
The best governmental strategy right now is
- save the energy that can be saved cheaply or even for free (~5-10%, actually probably less in well managed countries)
- build lots of nuclear plants NOW that oil and energy to build them is cheap (compared to fuel costs in 10 years). Make them modern, make them safe. Make it possible that they use plutonium : it is a fuel that is basically free, foreign countries without the tech will even pay you to take care of their.
- invest a lot in research. Make a courageous choice : do you believe in solar energy or fusion power? Choose one and invest massively. And remember : if a trillion dollars could give you Iraq's oil reserves, the result of these projects can give you a durable amount of energy that is far greater. Investment should be of a comparable scale.
- if you live in US : do not shut down tokamaks. This is one of the dumbest long-term move. Realize this : in 20 years, there will be fusion power. The first to have it will either build plants for the whole world or even sell electricity directly. And China wants that badly.
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